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Writer's picturePritiraj Brahma

China Rising: What It Means for India’s Strategic Future

India and China, the two most populous nations, share a complex relationship shaped by history, geography, politics, and economics. Contemporary China study, particularly its evolving geopolitical and economic strategies, has significant implications for India. This article titled "China Rising: What It Means for India’s Strategic Future" seeks to examine the intricacies of the India-China relationship through the lens of China’s foreign policy, economic rise, and military expansionism, exploring how these factors affect India’s national security, foreign policy, and regional strategy.

PM of Bharat Shri Narendra Modi, & Chinese President Xi Jinping
PM of Bharat Shri Narendra Modi, & Chinese President Xi Jinping

Introduction

India and China have shared centuries of cultural, religious, and economic exchanges. However, in modern times, their relations have been marked by rivalry, conflict, and cooperation. The two countries have experienced multiple phases of diplomatic engagement since the 1962 Sino-Indian War, but their strategic interests often diverge. With China's growing economic clout, military prowess, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), India faces new challenges and opportunities. This study delves into contemporary China to understand its strategic posturing and the implications for Sino-Indian relations in the 21st century.


  1. China’s Rise: Economic, Political, and Strategic


The Economic Rise of China

Since the late 1970s, China’s economic liberalization has propelled it to become the world's second-largest economy. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China has pursued the "Chinese Dream," focusing on achieving global economic dominance through initiatives like the BRI. These moves have heightened competition with India, especially in Southeast Asia and Africa, where both countries seek to expand their influence.


  • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): India views the BRI with suspicion, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. India’s refusal to join the BRI has led to diplomatic rifts, positioning the initiative as a crucial factor in their bilateral relations.


  • Trade Imbalance: Despite border disputes and political tensions, China remains one of India’s largest trading partners. However, the trade balance is heavily skewed in China’s favor, leading to economic dependency concerns. India has implemented protective measures like anti-dumping duties and incentivizing domestic production (e.g., "Make in India") to mitigate the adverse effects of Chinese imports.


Political Posturing and Diplomacy

China’s global diplomatic strategy has shifted towards greater assertiveness, with India frequently finding itself at odds with Beijing’s actions in international fora. China’s veto power in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has often been a point of contention, particularly in matters concerning Pakistan.


  • Border Disputes: The ongoing border disputes, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, remain a flashpoint. The 2020 Galwan Valley clash brought their fraught relations to the forefront, resulting in casualties on both sides. This incident has altered the dynamics of military engagement between the two nations.


  • The ‘Quad’ and Indo-Pacific Strategy: India has sought to counterbalance China’s influence by strengthening ties with like-minded democracies through forums like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) alongside the U.S., Japan, and Australia. China views this partnership as a containment strategy, exacerbating strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region.


  1. Military Expansion and Security Concerns

China’s Military Modernisation

China has undertaken significant military modernisation, increasing its defense budget annually. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has modernised its naval capabilities, focused on cyber warfare, and developed advanced missile technology. These developments have significant implications for India’s security, particularly in the Himalayan region and the Indian Ocean.

  • Doklam Standoff (2017): The standoff in Doklam, near the India-Bhutan-China trijunction, demonstrated China’s willingness to engage in aggressive posturing to challenge India’s territorial claims. The incident also revealed India’s strategic vulnerabilities along its northern borders.

  • Indian Ocean Region (IOR): China’s expanding footprint in the Indian Ocean, with the construction of ports in Pakistan (Gwadar), Sri Lanka (Hambantota), and Djibouti, poses a direct challenge to India’s maritime security. India’s response has been to strengthen its naval presence and enhance cooperation with regional powers like the U.S., Japan, and Australia through initiatives like the Malabar naval exercise.


Cybersecurity and Information Warfare

China’s prowess in cyber warfare and its potential to disrupt critical infrastructure have emerged as new areas of concern for India. The increasing digitisation of military and civilian infrastructure makes India vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Notably, the cyber-attacks on India’s power grid following the Galwan clash signaled China’s capability to wage asymmetric warfare.


  1. Economic Competition and Cooperation

Trade and Investment

Despite political tensions, India and China continue to maintain strong economic relations. In 2022, bilateral trade crossed $100 billion, though the trade imbalance persists. India relies heavily on Chinese imports for electronic goods, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, while exporting raw materials. This trade relationship, however, is fragile due to growing concerns over economic dependency.

  • Decoupling from China: In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising national security concerns, India has pursued economic decoupling from China, encouraging domestic production and reducing reliance on Chinese imports. The "Atmanirbhar Bharat" (Self-reliant India) initiative has been a key part of this strategy.


Multilateral Engagements

India and China, as members of various multilateral institutions like BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), find common ground on global governance issues. However, these platforms also serve as arenas for competition, with China’s economic dominance often overshadowing India’s contributions.


  1. Strategic Rivalries in South Asia and Beyond

South Asia as a Battleground for Influence

China’s strategic investments in South Asia, particularly in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, have heightened competition with India. Through its BRI projects, China seeks to encircle India, both geographically and diplomatically. India, in response, has deepened ties with countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan, and the Maldives to counter China’s influence.

  • Pakistan-China Nexus: The close relationship between China and Pakistan remains a significant concern for India. The CPEC, a key component of the BRI, provides China access to the Arabian Sea, effectively encircling India. Additionally, China’s military support to Pakistan has been a recurring source of tension.


Beyond South Asia: Africa and Central Asia

The rivalry between India and China extends beyond South Asia. Both nations have been vying for influence in Africa, where China’s aggressive investments in infrastructure have given it a competitive edge. India has focused on leveraging its historical ties and soft power, providing capacity-building assistance and educational opportunities.


Conclusion

The India-China relationship is a multi-faceted one, driven by historical disputes, economic competition, and geopolitical ambitions. China’s rise as a global power has redefined its engagement with India, moving from cautious diplomacy to assertive posturing. While both nations have engaged in limited cooperation through multilateral forums, the core of their relationship is defined by rivalry and strategic mistrust. As India continues to balance its national security concerns with economic realities, understanding contemporary China and its geopolitical strategies remains crucial for shaping India’s foreign policy in the 21st century.


References

  1. Bajpai, Kanti, et al. India Versus China: Why They Are Not Friends. Juggernaut Books, 2021.

  2. Garver, John W. Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century. University of Washington Press, 2001.

  3. Pant, Harsh V., ed. New Directions in India's Foreign Policy: Theory and Praxis. Cambridge University Press, 2019.

  4. Swaine, Michael D. Chinese Leadership and Elite Responses to the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011.

  5. Thakur, Ramesh. The Politics and Economics of India's Foreign Policy. Oxford University Press, 2016.

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