Assam, a state with a rich tapestry of ethnicities, cultures, and political undercurrents, has witnessed significant shifts in its political landscape since 2011. This period has been marked by transformative events, influential personalities, and evolving voter preferences, leading to a dynamic political environment that continues to shape the state's future.
The 2011 Assembly Elections: A Watershed Moment
The 2011 Assam Legislative Assembly elections were a pivotal moment in the state's political history. The Indian National Congress (INC), under the leadership of Tarun Gogoi, secured a third consecutive term, a testament to Gogoi's political acumen and the electorate's trust in his governance. The Congress won 78 out of 126 seats, an impressive feat in a state known for its complex and fragmented political affiliations.
Gogoi's administration focused on development, improving infrastructure, and addressing the insurgency issues that had long plagued the state. His tenure was marked by significant economic growth, with Assam's Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) growing at an average rate of 7.5% during his rule.
The Rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
The political scenario began to shift dramatically with the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam. The 2014 general elections marked the BJP's growing influence, as the party won 7 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state, signaling a change in voter sentiment. This momentum carried into the 2016 Assembly elections, where the BJP, led by Sarbananda Sonowal, achieved a historic victory.
The BJP's success was attributed to several factors:
Ethnic and Cultural Appeal: The BJP's strategic alliances with regional parties like the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) helped consolidate votes from diverse ethnic groups.
Development Agenda: Promises of development, job creation, and improved governance resonated with the electorate. The party capitalised on anti-incumbency sentiments and dissatisfaction with the Congress regime.
National Support: The BJP's national leadership, particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi, campaigned extensively in Assam, lending significant support to the state unit.
The BJP-AGP-BPF alliance secured 86 seats, with the BJP alone winning 60 seats. Sonowal's appointment as the Chief Minister marked the beginning of a new political era in Assam.
Himanta Biswa Sarma: The Power Play and Internal Feuds
A significant subplot in Assam’s political transformation involves Himanta Biswa Sarma, a former stalwart of the Congress who played a crucial role in the party's dominance under Tarun Gogoi. However, since 2011, internal feuds between Sarma and Gogoi began to surface. Sarma, feeling sidelined and under-appreciated within the Congress, became increasingly disillusioned. This internal discord reached a peak in 2014 when Sarma resigned from all party posts, signalling his intent to seek new political alliances.
In a strategic move in 2015, Sarma joined the BJP, bringing with him a significant number of Congress MLAs. This defection marked the rise of the BJP and Himanta Biswa Sarma's influence in Assam. His defection was a masterstroke for the BJP, which not only gained a seasoned political strategist but also weakened the Congress in Assam. Sarma's influence and organizational skills were pivotal in the BJP's success in the 2016 Assembly elections and subsequent political maneuvers in the state.
Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and NRC: Catalysts of Change
Two significant events that reshaped Assam's political dynamics were the implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). The NRC, aimed at identifying illegal immigrants, created widespread anxiety among the state's residents. The final list, published in August 2019, excluded over 1.9 million people, leading to legal and social challenges.
The CAA, passed in December 2019, sparked massive protests across Assam. The act, which provided a pathway to citizenship for non-Muslim immigrants from neighbouring countries, was seen by many as a threat to the state's cultural and demographic fabric. The protests were led by various student organisations, civil society groups, and political parties, reflecting the deep-seated concerns over identity and autonomy.
The 2021 Assembly Elections: A New Political Equation
The 2021 Assam Assembly elections were a litmus test for the BJP's governance and its handling of the CAA-NRC issues. Despite the controversies, the BJP managed to retain power, winning 60 seats, while its allies AGP and UPPL secured 9 and 6 seats respectively. Himanta Biswa Sarma, whose political acumen and ability to connect with diverse voter bases had been instrumental in the BJP's sustained success, was appointed Chief Minister.
Sarma's rise to the Chief Minister's position was the culmination of his strategic maneuvering and grassroots connect. His focus on development, healthcare, and education, coupled with strong organizational skills, has solidified his position as a key leader in Assam's politics.
Diversification and the Role of Regional Parties
The political landscape of Assam is characterized by the significant role of regional parties. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), formed in the aftermath of the Assam Movement in the 1980s, continues to be a major player. The Bodoland People's Front (BPF) and the newly formed United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) represent the interests of the Bodo community.
The emergence of the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Raijor Dal, both born out of the anti-CAA protests, reflects the dynamic nature of Assam's regional politics. These parties aim to address issues of ethnic identity, autonomy, and regional development, further diversifying the political spectrum.
Statistical Insights and Future Prospects
The voter turnout in Assam has been consistently high, with the 2021 elections recording a turnout of 82.04%, reflecting the electorate's active engagement in the democratic process. The BJP's vote share increased from 29.5% in 2016 to 33.2% in 2021, indicating growing support despite the controversies surrounding CAA and NRC.
The future of Assam's politics will likely continue to be shaped by regional aspirations, identity politics, and development agendas. The state's unique demographic composition and socio-political challenges demand adaptive and inclusive governance.
In conclusion, the political dynamics of Assam have undergone significant transformations since 2011. From the dominance of the Congress to the rise of the BJP and the emergence of new regional parties, the landscape is marked by continuous evolution. The interplay of development, identity, and regionalism will continue to define Assam's political trajectory in the years to come.
Comments